Monday, January 10, 2011

Current Market Conditions

Unfortunately, there is little to add to recent commentary. The market looks overbought and ready for a trade-able correction, possibly the start of something greater based on longer term indicators such as cash levels at mutual funds, dividend yields, Shiller PE, etc. 

While ideally I would like to see the McClellan higher, indicating a more overbought market internally thus more susceptible to a correction, it may be showing a bearish divergence. However I certainly have mixed feelings on the implications of the McClellan's recent behavior, as it is in the middle of the range, and it meaning arguable in either direction near term. Indicators of simple momentum seem to be in place for a a trade-able correction, especially with confirming signals from the put call ratio. So most pieces seem to be in place, and I just continue to wait for price action to produce a sell signal.

Chart 1: SPX with Indicators

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